Computer Picks Today

It's 11 a.m., the board is full, and you've got opinions on six games and a real read on maybe two. Our computer picks today give you a second opinion that doesn't care who you grew up rooting for: a spread pick and a total pick for every NFL, college football, NBA and college basketball game with lines, each rated from 1 to 5 stars.

Full Access members see every pick before the game starts. Everyone else sees the star rating right away and the pick itself a few minutes after the start. The record is open to anybody, no login needed.

How the model builds computer picks today

There's no secret sauce here, and we'd be suspicious of anyone who claims to have one. The model rates every team twice, once on offense and once on defense, using final scores from this season and last. Recent games count more than old ones. It adjusts for who a team played, because dropping 30 on a good defense says more than dropping 30 on a bad one, and it adds a home edge that it measures separately for each league.

From those ratings it projects a final score for both teams and holds that projection up against the spread and the total. Whichever side the projection favors is the pick. Say the model has the favorite winning by 9 and the line is 6: it takes the favorite. If it projects 41 points and the total is 47, it takes the under.

Lines move, so picks move with them right up to the start. At kickoff or tip-off the pick locks, and it's graded on the line it had at that moment. Postponed and cancelled games are left out of the record.

What the stars mean

The stars measure one thing: how far the projection sits from the line. Small gap, few stars. Big gap, more stars.

• 5 stars: Top pick (about the top 10% of edges)
• 4 stars: Strong
• 3 stars: Solid
• 2 stars: Lean
• 1 star: Slight lean

4 stars and up is roughly the top quarter of everything the model picks. That's where we'd start, after checking that tier's own row in the record. A Slight lean means the computer and the book barely disagree, and we rarely bother with those.

Why we show every loss

Anybody can post a winning week. We grade every pick, win or lose, and the record breaks it down by sport, by star level, by spreads and totals, and over the last 7 days, the last 30, this season and all time. There's a week-by-week chart and a Yesterday tab with final scores next to what the model projected, so when it gets a game badly wrong, you'll see it.

The model also checks itself. Every week it replays the last six weeks with different settings, like how fast old games fade, and keeps whichever version missed by the least. Past picks never change.

Using the numbers without getting burned

A computer pick knows scores and lines. It has no idea the starting quarterback tweaked a hamstring at practice, and it doesn't watch film. The line usually catches big news before kickoff and the pick follows the line, but read the news yourself, and see what our expert picks and the betting consensus say, before you bet.

Our favorite use is the second look. When the computer, the handicappers and the public all land on the same side, pay attention, and bet that game with your free balance first.

21+ only. Bet what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.