Picks against the spread and on the total for every NFL game from our computer model, rated 1 to 5 stars. Full Access members see every pick before kickoff; everyone sees them 10 minutes after kickoff. The record is free for everyone.
| Spreads | Totals | All | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–8 38.5% | 6–7 46.2% | 11–15 42.3% |
| ★★★★★ and up | 1–2 33.3% | 1–0 100.0% | 2–2 50.0% |
| ★★★★★ Top pick | 1–1 50.0% | 0–0 | 1–1 50.0% |
| ★★★★★ Strong | 0–1 0.0% | 1–0 100.0% | 1–1 50.0% |
| ★★★★★ Solid | 1–0 100.0% | 1–1 50.0% | 2–1 66.7% |
| ★★★★★ Lean | 1–3 25.0% | 1–4 20.0% | 2–7 22.2% |
| ★★★★★ Slight lean | 2–3 40.0% | 3–2 60.0% | 5–5 50.0% |
Wins and losses at the line when the game started; pushes don't count toward the win %. ★★★★★ and up is about the top quarter of our picks.
| Halftime | Projected |
|---|---|
| ChicagoBears | 20.2 |
| SeattleSeahawks | 23.2 |
| Projected | |
|---|---|
| JacksonvilleJaguars | Full Access |
| BaltimoreRavens | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| CincinnatiBengals | Full Access |
| AtlantaFalcons | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| DenverBroncos | Full Access |
| CarolinaPanthers | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| ClevelandBrowns | Full Access |
| New OrleansSaints | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| DallasCowboys | Full Access |
| IndianapolisColts | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| DetroitLions | Full Access |
| MiamiDolphins | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| New YorkJets | Full Access |
| Kansas CityChiefs | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| Los AngelesRams | Full Access |
| WashingtonCommanders | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| New YorkGiants | Full Access |
| PhiladelphiaEagles | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| HoustonTexans | Full Access |
| Los AngelesChargers | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| Las VegasRaiders | Full Access |
| San Francisco49ers | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| ArizonaCardinals | Full Access |
| SeattleSeahawks | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| Green BayPackers | Full Access |
| New EnglandPatriots | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| Tampa BayBuccaneers | Full Access |
| ChicagoBears | Full Access |
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| Projected | |
|---|---|
| BuffaloBills | Full Access |
| MinnesotaVikings | Full Access |
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Our computer picks come from a model that rates every team on offense and defense, then projects the final score of every game.
Picks lock at kickoff and are never changed afterwards. Every pick, win or lose, goes into the public record below. Computer picks are projections, not guarantees. Bet responsibly. 21+.
Star ratings. The bigger the gap between our projection and the line, the more stars:
Sunday morning has a sound to it: the pregame shows arguing, your group chat arguing louder, and every line on the board looking like a trap. Our NFL computer picks today cut through some of that. Every NFL game with a spread and total gets a pick on each, rated from 1 to 5 stars by the model behind our computer picks for every sport, which only cares about scores and lines.
With a Full Access membership you see the picks before kickoff. Everyone else sees the stars now and the pick a few minutes into the game, and the full NFL record is free.
Every team gets an offense rating and a defense rating built from final scores, this season and last, with recent games weighing more. The ratings account for the schedule, so a team that put up points against good defenses gets more credit than one that fattened up on bad ones.
Home field is measured from NFL results and updated through the season. Put it together and you get a projected score for both teams. Compare that with the spread and the total, and the side the projection favors is the pick.
Last season's games matter most in September. With only a few games played, one blowout can make a team look like something it isn't, and the older results keep the ratings from swinging too hard. As the season goes on, this year's games take over, since recent results count more.
NFL lines can move all week on injury news, weather and money. The picks follow the line until kickoff, so a move from 3 to 4.5 can flip a pick or change its stars. Once the ball is in the air the pick locks and gets graded on that kickoff line. If you saw a 4 star pick on Wednesday, look again on Sunday before you bet it at the current NFL odds.
The stars come from the size of the gap between projection and line: Top pick at 5 stars (about the top 10% of edges), then Strong, Solid, Lean and Slight lean. They measure that gap in raw points, so look at where the number sits too. In football, a lot of games land on 3 or 7, and a Slight lean on a spread of exactly 3 deserves extra care.
An NFL season is short, so any stretch of a few weeks is a small sample. A hot month can be luck, and so can a cold one. The record lets you check the last 7 days, the last 30, this season and all time, split by spreads and totals and by star level. Read the longer windows before you get excited about the short ones.
Every week the model replays the last six weeks with different settings and keeps whichever one projected best. It never rewrites a past pick.
The computer won't know a backup quarterback is starting unless the line has already moved for it, so check the injury report. One minute of reading there saves more bets than any star rating will.
21+. Play responsibly, and if betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Picks made by a model instead of a person: every NFL team is rated on offense and defense from its scores, the model projects each game's final score, and the pick is the side of the spread and total the projection favors.
Check the record on this page: every NFL pick we have made, graded on the line at kickoff, by star rating, for this season, the last 7 and 30 days, and all time.
Every NFL game this week with a spread and total is listed above with its star rating. Full Access members see the picks now; everyone sees them 10 minutes after kickoff.
Some weeks one does better, some weeks the other. Compare our computer record here with our Expert Picks, and look for games where both agree.
Ratings update after every final score, and picks follow the line until kickoff, so a big line move can change a pick or its stars. At kickoff the pick locks.
Yes. It measures home field from the results instead of using a fixed number, and keeps updating it through the season.
More: NFL computer picks · College Football computer picks · NBA computer picks · College Basketball computer picks · Expert picks and consensus · Scores · Bet
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